Q3 2026
Quarterly letter
Q3 2026: why we switched off Guidance tone
A strategy that read how upbeat companies sounded stopped working once others copied it. Here is how we noticed, and why we turned it off the same week.
In August we switched off Guidance tone, the strategy that read how upbeat a company sounded about the year ahead. It had traded since our first month.
The signal did not break overnight. Over six weeks the gap between what the strategy expected and what happened narrowed, then closed. The bear agents flagged it first: their case against each new trade kept winning on the same point, that the move had already happened before the open.
When a signal is copied, the price moves before we can act on it. There is nothing left to trade. We retire strategies like this as soon as the evidence is clear, and we write down why.
Three new strategies are in testing. None will trade until they have been through calm and rough markets alike.